Jelang Pilgub NTB 2024: Sitti Rohmi Memimpin, Bang Zul dan Iqbal Kalah, Miq Gita Paling Buncit
LOMBOKita – Perolehan signifikan yang diperoleh Doktor Hj. Sitti Rohmi Djalilah setelah mendeklarasikan diri menjadi bakal calon Gubernur bersama pasangannya, Musafirin, menunjukkan kinerja yang progresif.
Fakta terbaru dari hasil survei yang dilakukan oleh lembaga survei Poltracking menunjukkan bahwa Ummi Rohmi, panggilan akrabnya, memimpin di posisi pertama, mengalahkan Zulkieflimansyah atau Bang Zul yang berada di urutan kedua, disusul Lalu Muhammad Iqbal, dan Lalu Gita Ariadi yang berada di posisi paling buncit.
Dalam simulasi semi terbuka terhadap para pemilih, Sitti Rohmi Djalilah unggul dengan angka 23,8 persen, mengalahkan petahana Dr. Zulkieflimansyah yang memperoleh 21,3 persen, dan Lalu Muhammad Iqbal dengan 13,8 persen.
Dalam simulasi empat nama calon gubernur, elektabilitas Sitti Rohmi Djalilah meningkat menjadi 33 persen. Ia diikuti oleh Zulkieflimansyah (29,5 persen), Lalu Muhammad Iqbal (17 persen), dan Lalu Gita Ariadi (2,1 persen). Ada 18,4 persen responden yang tidak tahu atau tidak menjawab.
Survei ini dilakukan dengan metode stratified multistage random sampling, melibatkan 800 responden, dengan margin of error sebesar ±3,5 persen pada tingkat kepercayaan 95 persen.
Klaster survei mencakup 10 kabupaten/kota di seluruh Provinsi NTB secara proporsional berdasarkan jumlah Daftar Pemilih Tetap (DPT) 2024, dengan stratifikasi berdasarkan proporsi jenis kelamin pemilih. Pengumpulan data dilakukan oleh pewawancara terlatih melalui wawancara tatap muka menggunakan aplikasi teknologi terhadap responden terpilih secara acak.
Temuan lain juga menunjukkan bahwa kepuasan publik terhadap kinerja Sitti Rohmi Djalilah sebagai Wakil Gubernur NTB (2018—2023) mencapai 66,2 persen. Sementara Zulkieflimansyah sebagai Gubernur memperoleh tingkat kepuasan sebesar 61 persen. Untuk kinerja bersama Gubernur dan Wakil Gubernur, angka kepuasan mencapai 64,3 persen.
Dr. Zulkieflimansyah, yang sebelumnya selalu memimpin, kini mengalami penurunan signifikan. Gubernur NTB 2018-2023 ini tren elektabilitasnya terus menurun dari hasil survei sebelumnya yang dilakukan oleh LSI Denny JA. Pada hasil survei tersebut, Zulkieflimansyah meraih 32,1 persen; disusul Suhaili FT dengan 11,9 persen; Sitti Rohmi Djalilah dengan 10,3 persen; dan Indah Dhamayanti Putri dengan 10,1 persen. Selanjutnya, L Muhammad Iqbal meraih 6,4 persen; L Gita Ariadi 3,5 persen; Mohan Roliskana 3,1 persen.
Dalam survei sebelumnya oleh lembaga yang sama, Poltracking, yang dilakukan pada 27-31 Maret 2024 dengan melibatkan 800 responden, hasilnya mengungkap sejumlah fakta menarik tentang dinamika politik di Nusa Tenggara Barat. Zulkieflimansyah menempati posisi puncak dengan elektabilitas sebesar 29,0 persen, menegaskan posisinya sebagai salah satu kandidat paling menonjol dalam persaingan pada bulan Maret 2024.
Namun kini, tren elektabilitas Dr. Zul menurun, sementara Lalu Muhammad Iqbal menunjukkan peningkatan yang signifikan mendekati Dr. Zul. Di sisi lain, Lalu Gita Ariadi tetap stagnan di urutan paling buncit dengan angka di bawah 5 persen. Persaingan semakin ketat dan dinamis menjelang Pilgub NTB,
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